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Video: Dynamic price development on the real estate market
The Landesbausparkassen (LBS) still see no relaxation on the German housing market. Their current spring survey of 600 real estate brokers from LBS and savings banks rather signals noticeable price increases of between four and six percent by the end of the year that are above the headline inflation rate.
"An unchanged high demand for properties with a shrinking supply of existing properties and an inadequate new building continues to shape the housing market, " said association director Axel Guthmann at the launch of the LBS analysis "Market for Residential Real Estate 2019" at the beginning of May in Berlin. At the same time, he hoped that the situation could normalize somewhat soon if construction activity could be maintained at a high level and approved properties were completed quickly.
According to the analysis, the price increases affect all submarkets examined, i.e. freestanding houses and terraced houses, new and used condominiums, and building land. The greatest price pressure with expected increases of over six percent is to be registered with the building land. But the offer for the other properties does not keep pace with the high demand from both owner-occupiers and capital investors. Another result of this year's survey: the tense situation on the German housing market, particularly in the largest cities and their surrounding areas, as well as many university cities, has meanwhile expanded to prospering medium-sized cities.
Survey allows comprehensive picture
The property experts from LBS and Sparkassen are asked each spring about their assessment of the supply and demand situation on the new construction and used housing market as well as about typical prices - each in medium to good locations - on site. The survey for 402 rural and urban districts provides a comprehensive picture of the housing market situation in Germany.
Despite the ongoing price dynamics, the housing market in Germany remains characterized by enormous price differences from region to region. This traditionally applies to used detached single-family houses, usually in an attractive location, which are at the top of the popularity scale. According to the LBS Real Estate Price List, Munich appears at the top of the price in large German cities, where it is 1.5 million euros, more than ten times more expensive than in individual East German medium-sized cities. Behind the Bavarian capital follow in the major cities of the southwest with Wiesbaden (1.2 million euros), Stuttgart (1 million euros), Freiburg im Breisgau (860, 000 euros), Regensburg (850, 000 euros), Heidelberg (840, 000 euros) as well as Düsseldorf and Frankfurt each with 800, 000 euros.
Urban areas are also expensive
Real estate in attractive surrounding communities is sometimes even more expensive. The noble Munich suburb of Grünwald even set the absolute record with 1.8 million euros. And in Meerbusch, the typical properties with 800, 000 euros are just as expensive as in Düsseldorf. According to the LBS experts, there are also top prices in regions with a particularly attractive landscape: in the Prealps Herrsching am Ammersee and Starnberg with 1.3 million euros each, at Constance with 800, 000 euros and Lindau with 710, 000 euros.
On the other hand, the real estate price index of the LBS also lists half-million cities where relatively cheap used single-family houses are available. Typical prices in Leipzig, Hanover, Bremen, Dortmund and Dresden range between 290, 000 and 380, 000 euros. In some large cities, the price level is significantly lower, not only in the new federal states with Halle and Magdeburg (170, 000 and 220, 000 euros), but also occasionally in the north (Bremerhaven with 200, 000 euros) and in the west (victories with 190, 000 euros). In the medium-sized cities, Eisleben and Annaberg-Buchholz mark the lower end of the price range with 80, 000 and 60, 000 euros, respectively.
According to the LBS experts, the prices of new row homes have also risen recently - by an average of 4.2 percent. "But here, too, the entry prices for prospective home owners are not bad, " says Guthmann. In Schleswig-Holstein (North) they are around 290, 000 euros, in Saxony they range between 200, 000 and 270, 000 euros, in North Rhine-Westphalia between 240, 000 and 350, 000 euros. Only in the south do the prices signal real bottlenecks in many places. For example, even “in line” a new home in Munich costs 1.1 million euros and in Starnberg 1.15 million euros. In almost a third of the metropolises of half a million or more, they still ranked in the range of up to 350, 000 euros.
According to the LBS analysis, there are similar regional differences in used row houses - on average with a price advantage compared to new buildings of around 15 percent. "Occasionally, due to the location, they are just as expensive as new buildings, as can be seen in the example of Frankfurt am Main, " says Guthmann.
Rising prices for condominiums
With new condominiums, the LBS experts register noticeably higher prices everywhere, especially in places of tourist interest, in metropolitan areas and university towns. According to the LBS price index, Graefelfing reached the top value at 8, 500 euros per square meter, followed by Starnberg (8, 350 euros). Far ahead of Frankfurt, Stuttgart (6, 500 euros and 6, 700 euros) and Hamburg (5, 100 euros) are Planegg (8, 200 euros) and Grünwald (8, 000 euros). In the cities of half a million, the square meter prices in Dortmund, Dresden and Bremen are in the range of 3, 500 euros or even less.
LBS experts are also seeing increasing demand and prices for used condominiums - on average by 4.9 percent. However, the price difference to a new building (usually with a higher standard) remains large. Currently, the discount for used condominiums is still around 36.3 percent on average compared to new buildings.
According to experts, building land remains the number one bottleneck factor on the real estate market. Top prices are registered in large cities in south and south-west Germany such as Munich (2, 300 euros) including some surrounding communities, Stuttgart (1, 400 euros) or Düsseldorf (770 euros). According to the LBS price index, in many medium-sized cities and in some large cities (Bremerhaven, Cottbus and Salzgitter), building land is also on the market for around 100 euros per square meter or even less.
For the further development on the German real estate market as a whole, according to the LBS experts, the most important thing will be that the expansion of the housing supply is making rapid progress. "Despite all efforts to densify and use existing fallow land - without the designation of new building land, it will not be possible to contain the land prices and build inexpensive living space, " Guthmann concluded.
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